Beiyang Dream

Chapter 50 The Emperor's Bet

Saturday, April 7, 1890, 3:00 p.m.

The study of Wilhelm II at the Berlin Imperial Palace.

In front of a Far East map that had only been hung up a few days ago, sat Wilhelm II, dressed in a crisp military uniform, his mustache spiking, looking quite smug.

There were three people sitting in front of him.

Moltke sat the most upright, his back ramrod straight as if measured with a ruler—that's typical of those from the Prussian General Staff. Tirpitz sat to his right, his face beneath his large beard tense, looking somewhat tired; this soon-to-be Inspector General of the Beiyang Fleet had been quite busy these days. Caprivi sat to his left; this former lieutenant general, nominated for prime minister just days before, still carried a hint of the timidity of a newly appointed official, his posture somewhere between military and politician.

"Tell me about it."

Wilhelm II spoke up, his voice always carrying a hint of someone who loved watching a good show.

"How did those Easterners end up fighting on the sand table?"

Little Moltke opened the folder in his hand.

"Your Majesty," his voice was as flat as if he were reciting a battle order, "the war game simulation of the Sino-Japanese War organized by the War Academy concluded yesterday. This is the final evaluation report..."

"Remember the key points."

Wilhelm II interrupted him, twirling an unlit cigar between his fingers as if he were twirling a pen.

"Yes."

Moltke opened the report, skipping the first dozen or so pages of tactical simulations, troop deployments, and logistical calculations—the emperor had no interest in those. He flipped to the last page, straight to the conclusion.

"The simulation results show," he read aloud, "that if the Qing and Japan go to war over Korea, and both command headquarters adopt the optimal strategy—that is, the Japanese army seeks a quick victory and the Qing army seeks attrition—then the war will most likely become protracted."

"Persistence?"

Wilhelm II raised an eyebrow.

"how long?"

"Under the most ideal scenario set in the simulation," Moltke the Younger said, "the Qing army successfully prolonged the war for more than a year. Moreover, the scale continued to expand, from the initial deployment of several thousand men on each side to a total force of more than 200,000, with the battle line extending from the Korean Peninsula to Liaodong and Shandong in Qing territory."

"etc."

Wilhelm II raised his hand.

"You mean, the war will break out on Qing territory?"

"There are two possibilities, Your Majesty."

Moltke closed the report; he had already memorized its contents, and he was just putting on a show.

"In the first scenario, neither side gains control of the sea. In this case, the Japanese army would occupy southern Korea in the winter of the first year of the war and establish a puppet regime. As for the Qing army..."

He paused for a moment, then chose a more fitting word.

"...Or rather, the Beiyang Army will build strong fortifications in northern Korea, dragging the war into a war of attrition. Eventually, when both sides are exhausted, peace talks will be held with the intervention of Russia, France, and ourselves."

"What about the second one?"

"The second scenario is that the Japanese military gains complete control of the sea."

Moltke's voice dropped by half a octave.

"Then they won't fight to the death in Korea. They'll use their fleet to transport troops and land directly on the Qing mainland. In Liaodong and Shandong, they'll attack Liugong Island and Lushun, annihilating the remaining Beiyang Fleet. And then..."

He paused.

"Then advance into Zhili, forcing the Qing court to admit defeat."

The study was quiet for a few seconds.

"And then what?" Wilhelm II asked. "Will the Qing Dynasty really admit defeat?"

Little Moltke raised his head.

"Then, everything depends on the decision of the British Empire."

"U.K?"

Wilhelm II frowned.

"Isn't Britain supporting Japan? Last year's Anglo-Japanese Treaty of Commerce and Navigation, along with those naval gun orders and large loans. Those British guys now wish they could arm Japan to the teeth so they could cause trouble for the Russians in the Far East."

He turned his gaze to Caprivi as he said this.

Kaprivi cleared his throat.

"Your Majesty, Britain is indeed arming Japan," he said, "but the support is limited."

"limit?"

"Britain's interests in China are too great."

Kaprivi stood up and walked to the map of the Far East. He traced his finger from the mouth of the Yangtze River upstream, past Shanghai and Tianjin, all the way to Beijing.

"Yangtze River shipping, customs revenue, railway loans, mining... these highly profitable businesses were built on the premise that the Qing central government—that is, the Tatar dynasty—could still maintain its rule. If this dynasty collapsed in war..."

He turned around.

"The Qing Dynasty might descend into civil war. Division, fragmentation, and warlord conflicts, just as have happened countless times in their history. What will become of Britain's investments and businesses then?"

He didn't finish his sentence, but his meaning was clear.

Wilhelm II nodded slightly.

"so?"

"Therefore, Britain's bottom line was: Japan could teach Qing China a lesson, take Korea, and even demand a large indemnity. But..."

Caprivie paused.

"But we cannot overthrow the Tatar dynasty, we cannot cause the complete collapse of the Qing dynasty, and we cannot allow the Russians to take advantage of the situation to move south from the north and seize Manchuria."

He walked back to his seat and sat down.

"If the war shows any signs of threatening Beijing or overthrowing the Qing Dynasty, Britain... will call a halt."

"And once Britain calls a halt," Moltke Jr. continued, "Japan will have no choice but to give up. Their fleet was built by Britain, their national debt is issued in London, their diplomacy is supported by Britain, and they have no leverage to say no."

The study fell silent again.

This time, the quiet lasted a bit longer.

Then Wilhelm II suddenly burst out laughing.

"What a huge gamble!"

He stood up, walked to the globe, and slammed his right hand on the Qing Dynasty's position.

"Do you really think those Beiyang warlords would use their own Tatar court as a hostage to force Britain to halt Japan's plans?"

He turned his head, looked at the three of them, and wore a malicious smile.

"But what if Britain doesn't stop it? What if Britain thinks it's more in their interest to let Japan destroy the Qing Dynasty's central government?"

To be honest, even the retired Bismarck couldn't answer this question... so these three people in front of me are even more confused.

After a long silence, Tirpitz spoke first.

This naval captain will be taking up his post in Tianjin next week with a military advisory group. These days, besides keeping an eye on the design of the "Changyuan," he has been studying the situation in the Far East. Through Reiner, Schneider, and several veteran diplomats who had served in Qing China, he has gained a general understanding of the Beiyang Army's resources.

"Your Majesty," he said carefully, "perhaps... another possibility will emerge."

"explain."

"The Qing Dynasty collapsed, but the Beiyang government still existed."

After saying this, Tirpitz frowned, seemingly unsure of himself.

"The Beiyang clique was a military group with its own army, its own finances, and its own territory. If they proved their worth in the war, proving that they were better able to maintain order and protect foreign interests than that Tatar court..."

He stopped and didn't continue.

But the meaning is already quite clear.

Wilhelm II stared at him for two seconds, then turned to look at Caprivi.

Is it possible?

Kaprivi frowned and thought for a long time before slowly saying:

"It's possible, but there's another possibility... In order to avoid its own collapse, while the Beiyang Fleet was still capable of fighting, the Tatar Dynasty took the initiative to seek peace with Japan and abandon Korea."

He paused, then added:

"Pushing the Beiyang Army to the front lines to take the bullets while they themselves seek peace from the rear—there are many such cases in history."

After listening, Wilhelm II did not speak immediately, but pondered for a full three minutes before suddenly laughing.

"In other words," Wilhelm II said, "the Qing emperor and empress dowager may have considered the Beiyang Fleet their primary adversary. Britain, at some point, may have viewed the Beiyang Fleet as a better proxy. As for Japan... Japan only wants to win, regardless of who the loser is."

He laughed, a laugh that held the excitement of a child discovering a new toy.

"Okay, that's interesting. This is very interesting!"

His voice suddenly turned somber, and his gaze swept over the three men in military uniforms in front of him.

"But no matter what, the Beiyang Army will exist as long as Japan cannot completely defeat it on the battlefield. As long as it can still fight, has guns, men, and money, this group will continue to exist."

He looked at Moltke.

Helmut.

"Yes, Your Majesty."

"Go and meet with Chang Desheng. Ask him two things in your own name."

William II said.

"First, is it possible that Beiyang might, at some point in the future, lease an ice-free port in the East to the German Empire, a port that is spacious enough to accommodate our fleet?"

Little Moltke nodded.

"Second," Wilhelm II continued, "ask him what kind of help he needs. Weapons, military advisors, loans... or, does he and that Schneider Electric company, which is secretly owned by that Zhang fellow, need any 'favors'?"

When he said the word "convenient," his tone was subtle.

Moltke nodded again.

"clear."

Wilhelm II waved his hand, indicating that they could leave.

After the three of them had reached the door, he suddenly spoke again:

"Alfred."

Tirpitz turned around.

"His Majesty?"

"The parameters of the 'Changyuan'," Wilhelm II asked, "do the Japanese know them?"

Tirpitz immediately replied, "The message has already been 'released,' Your Majesty. Through some... informal channels."

Wilhelm II laughed.

"That's good. I'd like to see what kind of new toys the Japanese can get from the British Empire when they take these parameters to London."

......

That evening, in Berlin, at the Qing Dynasty Legation.

After seeing off the messenger sent by Mao Qi, Chang Desheng closed the door and stood there for a full three seconds.

He was holding a piece of paper in his hand.

It was written in German, just one line:

"Meet me at the college office at 8:00 AM tomorrow. I have important matters to discuss. — Moltke"

Chang Desheng stared at the line of text, his eyes narrowing.

There are important matters to discuss.

Tomorrow morning at eight o'clock.

Don't they rest on Sundays?

Chang Desheng suddenly laughed.

Hehe, this deal... has potential!

However, we really have to thank that bastard Tojo for making this deal happen.

This guy really put in his all in the war games. Simulating the Qing army, he executed a series of well-coordinated moves: seizing Li Wang, withdrawing from Pyongyang, implementing a scorched-earth policy, and dividing his forces to control territory. Even though Chang Desheng held the "historical answer" and knew how the Japanese army ultimately won, he was dragged into the quagmire by Tojo.

What a pity, Tojo.

Chang Desheng muttered to himself.

You are simulating an "ideal Qing army," with a modern staff system, unified command, logistical support, and political mobilization capabilities.

But did the real Beiyang Army exist in history?

No!

The Beiyang government only had Li Hongzhang, who held it together in Tianjin. Below him were the old troops of the Huai Army, Chu Army, and Xiang Army, each acting independently. In the court, there were still the upright officials like Weng Tonghe who were constantly causing trouble. Empress Dowager Cixi was still eyeing her gardens. Although Emperor Guangxu advocated war, he couldn't do any real work and was always causing trouble by giving irrelevant orders.

This is the real difficulty.

On the other hand, if the Beiyang Army had actually followed the model that Tojo had imitated, they might have had a real chance in the First Sino-Japanese War!

The experts in the German General Staff probably thought so too, otherwise, where would the "Sunday appointment of Moltke the Younger" come from?

Wilhelm II has probably been fooled by Tojo's simulation and is now willing to invest!

Hehe, using the enemy's abilities to make potential allies believe that you are capable is such a brilliant strategy. It's so clever that it's like adding another strategy to the Thirty-Six Stratagems. It's called "borrowing the enemy to seek an alliance".

Looks like I really do have a talent for military affairs!