Beiyang Dream

Chapter 48 Tojo: If I were Chang Desheng

At the same time, the smoke in the second operations room was so strong it stung the eyes.

Shogo Iguchi, the heavy smoker, touched the cigarette pack again, only to find it empty. The second-ranked student from the university looked as if he were being forced to solve an utterly unsolvable problem. He clicked his tongue, crumpled the empty pack into a ball, and tossed it into the corner.

Sitting opposite me was Yamaguchi Keizo, the third-ranked student at the Army Academy, who was wiping his glasses. He was using the corner of his own clothes to wipe them, slowly, one circle, two circles, three circles. The more he wiped, the uglier his face looked.

Fujii Shigeta, fourth in his class at Riku University, sat with his arms crossed, leaning back in his chair, staring at the ceiling, completely motionless. He looked exactly like someone about to hand in a blank exam paper.

Hideaki Tojo sat at the head of the table, his back ramrod straight. He had no intention of handing in a blank roll; he was the first-place winner, how could he possibly hand in a blank roll?

Three documents were spread out in front of him, the middle one being a map of North Korea. Incheon, Seoul, Pyongyang... black dots were marked on it, looking rather jarring.

The room had been quiet for a while.

"Tojo-kun."

Wellhead finally spoke, his voice like a broken bellows, hoarse from smoking.

"This question..." He grabbed the Huai Army organization chart, poking his finger at the paper, "I can't do it!"

He swiped his finger down to the equipment bar section:

"The Huai Army has 104 battalions, totaling 52,000 men. Their equipment… look at it, Mauser, Mannlicher, Enfield… you can find three different calibers in a single battalion. How are we supposed to manage logistics? We need to stock three different types of ammunition. What if we issue the wrong ones during battle? The logistics officer in charge of supplies will be driven mad!"

Yamaguchi finally put on his glasses, and his small eyes behind the lenses squinted as he said:

"Our only hope lies at sea. If the Beiyang Fleet wins, there will be a glimmer of hope for the land battle."

Fujii didn't move, still staring at the ceiling, muttering to himself:

"The Beiyang Fleet can't win... because the war is Japan's, and Japan is an island nation. If the navy isn't confident, the military won't even consider it."

After he finished speaking, the room fell silent again.

All three of them were staring at Tojo.

Tojo didn't say anything.

He picked up the compilation sheet, brought it close to his face, and looked at it again. He read it slowly, line by line, like he was memorizing vocabulary.

Actually, he had seen this table back in his time at the Army University and could already recite it from memory.

But this time it's different.

This time, he saw himself as Chang Desheng.

The Huai Army had 104 battalions, each with about 500 men. Their equipment was a real mixed bag; although all the breech-loading rifles had been replaced, the models were all over the place and there was no systematic equipment at all.

The field artillery was decent. Mainly Krupp, 75mm caliber, with a small number of 57mm Grussen rapid-fire cannons, totaling over 120 guns. This doesn't even include the large guns that remained stationary in their turrets.

There were also machine guns... Gatling guns, Maxim guns. The Qing army was willing to buy these things, and they could even manufacture them themselves. The Japanese didn't have this equipment, finding it too wasteful of ammunition, and that firing at them was like pouring water.

There were five thousand cavalry. The Ming Army, Sheng Army, Yi Army, and other armies each had their share. Yuan Shikai alone had two or three hundred elite cavalry under his command in Korea!

He put down the compilation form, looked up, his brows furrowed, and stared at the three people.

"What if," he said, emphasizing each word, "that the Qing army was commanded by... Chang Desheng?"

The room fell silent for a moment.

Iguchi chuckled, as if he'd heard a joke. But his lips barely parted before he froze. Tojo's expression was so grave, it was almost frightening.

"Chang Desheng was the top student at the Prussian War Academy last semester," Tojo continued, "His final grades last semester were the highest of everyone!"

He picked up a pencil. He sharpened the tip to a fine point, held it above the map of North Korea, and then, with a "snap," stabbed it into Seoul.

"Here," he said, "we only have four hundred men, not elite field troops, but the embassy guards. The Qing army here number fifteen hundred, Yuan Shikai's Qing Army. There are also the Korean New Army under his control, about a thousand men. That makes two thousand five hundred in total."

"Four hundred against two thousand five," he paused, tapping the pen tip on the point about Seoul, "it's obvious he's going to suffer a loss."

Then the pen tip moved north and stopped in Pyongyang on the north bank of the Taedong River.

"Besides having a numerical advantage in Seoul, the Qing army had three other advantages."

He drew a line between Pyongyang and Uiju.

"First, the supply line. From Uiju to Pyongyang, it's over 300 li of land. Even if the sea route is cut off, we can hold out for a long time."

"Secondly, the Qing Dynasty was vast and rich in resources, making it more energy-intensive than Japan."

"The third thing is cavalry!" He raised his voice. "The Huai Army has five thousand cavalry. Yuan Shikai has three hundred elite cavalry. And us? Seven divisions, a total of three thousand five hundred cavalry, scattered in various places. The first batch of organized cavalry that can be transferred to Korea by sea... is zero."

"If I were Chang Desheng..." He stared intently at the map, not blinking, "I would strike first before the Japanese army could. I would take the Korean king away from Seoul and head north to Pyongyang."

Iguchi frowned: "Why Pyongyang? Not Uiju? Uiju is closer to the Qing Dynasty."

"Because Pyongyang is the western capital of Korea, the place where the king should reside." Tojo interrupted him, pointing a few dots around Pyongyang with the tip of his pencil. "Also, the Taedong River Valley next to Pyongyang is Korea's granary. If we occupy Pyongyang, the Qing army can obtain food supplies on the spot, and the logistical pressure will be greatly reduced."

He then drew a line with a pencil between Seoul and Pyongyang. It was winding and meandering along the official road.

"At the same time," he said, marking the official road with an X here and a circle there, "we can also send cavalry out along this road to blow up bridges, burn grain, and drive away the people... a scorched-earth policy!"

"Let's turn the road from Seoul to Pyongyang into a dead end!"

"It meant that every step the Imperial Army took had to be taken by clearing obstacles, guarding against ambushes, and worrying about food, ammunition, and their escape route."

"Once Yuan Shikai retreats to Pyongyang, he immediately issues an edict in the name of the King of Korea." He paused, "saying: 'The Japanese pirates have invaded the capital; order the eight provinces to come to the aid of the King…'"

"Then..." He took a deep breath, drawing several lines from Pyongyang outwards, reaching all eight provinces of Korea, "and dispatching cavalry from Qing China to attack in separate routes. Fifty or a hundred riders in each route, escorting the Korean officials carrying the royal decree to the eight provinces of Korea. To Jeonju, to Gyeongju... to every prefecture and every county."

He looked up at the three people, his eyes filled with unconcealed worry.

"The Koreans were terrified of the Qing cavalry. They were utterly defeated by the Manchu cavalry back then, their bones were even broken."

"When they saw the Qing cavalry approaching, when the riders were carrying foreign rifles and swaggering about, and when they heard the Korean officials reciting their king's decrees—what do you think they would choose? Whom would they side with?"

Iguchi, Yamaguchi, and Fujii all sat up straight, their faces ashen.

Tojo continued, "Then the Qing cavalry took root there... Fifty men could occupy a prefecture, twenty men could control a county, and there were hundreds or even thousands of Korean militia at their beck and call!"

"If we want to control Korea, we have to occupy it county by county, prefecture by prefecture... But how many troops can the Imperial Army spare to occupy those three hundred-plus counties in Korea?"

"Would the Qing Dynasty really do such a thing?" Iguchi stammered.

"Chang Desheng will definitely do it!" Tojo's voice deepened. "Because this is the best solution for Qing! With minimal cost—a few thousand cavalry, a few hundred edicts, and three hundred pro-Qing Korean officials—they can turn the eight provinces of Korea into a quagmire for the Imperial Army."

"For the Imperial Army to achieve a swift victory..." He shook his head. "It's difficult!"

The room was deathly silent.

Only the clock was still ticking away, tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock, making one's heart tremble with unease.

After a long while, Jingkou finally asked in a hoarse voice:

"So...how do we fight?"

"The first step," Tojo took a breath, his voice steadying, "is to get ahead of him, to control Seoul, to control the King of Joseon. But that will be difficult... because he must have foreseen this too!"

"The second step, if he succeeds first..." The pen tip crossed out Seoul on the map, "we can only occupy Seoul first and install a pro-Japanese puppet, but it won't be very useful. The Koreans will still recognize their own legitimate king."

"The third step, advance north..." The pen stopped abruptly outside Pyongyang. "We can't be too reckless, nor too slow. We also need to be careful about our rear... because we're unlikely to be able to requisition food along the way, and all supplies will have to be transported from Seoul, or even... from Incheon!"

"The fourth step..." He paused, then drew an X on Pyongyang on the map. "If we can't take Pyongyang before winter, we'll retreat to Seoul... and wait until spring of the following year."

He looked up and stared at the three people for a long time.

"But Chang Desheng won't keep us waiting..." He spoke softly, almost to himself, "He'll bring in a new army from the country during winter. You all know the Beiyang Army is training a new army... nominally to defend against the Russians, but it'll be just as effective in the Korean winter..."

"Our strategy," he put down his pencil, "is to be prepared for a year or two of fighting! To be prepared for bloodshed and death at every step!"

He paused, then added, his voice even softer:

"Because Changde's victory... will definitely make us pay a price." His tone suddenly became serious. "But the winner is often the one more willing to pay the price!"

Iguchi, Yamaguchi, and Fujii looked at each other but didn't say anything.

Tojo looked at the clock on the wall.

Nine o'clock sharp.

Chang Desheng next door should already be working on a draft plan, right?

He looked away and picked up the Huai Army's organizational chart.

"Let's begin," Tojo said. "Let's play Chang Desheng for a moment... and see what tricks Chang Desheng can pull off against another version of himself."

"Hi!"

The deductions by four top students from Japan's Army War College began.

……

July 5, 1890, 4 PM.

The study in the Berlin Grand Palace is quite large, but it's crammed full of things—globes, warship models, odds and ends from various countries, and a world map that takes up most of one wall, making your head spin just looking at it.

Wilhelm II stood proudly in front of the map, hands behind his back, chest puffed out, looking just like a true commander-in-chief.

Little Moltke stood three steps behind him, clutching two folders in his hands. One was blue, and the other was red.

"Your Majesty," Xiao Mao asked curiously, "this is the draft plan for the first phase of today's simulation."

Without turning around, Wilhelm II uttered a single word: "Read."

"Operation Blue Army." Moltke opened the blue folder and read aloud, "The order was given on May 28th, and the fleet was to assemble at Upin Port by the 31st, board ships on June 1st, arrive at Incheon on the 3rd, and land by the 10th. Then, without declaring war, a surprise attack on Seoul would be launched. At the same time, the main naval force would advance into the Yellow Sea to engage the main force of the Beiyang Fleet in a decisive battle."

He paused, then added, "This plan was dictated by Chang Desheng within five minutes of hearing and deciding on it."

Wilhelm II turned around.

A hint of surprise flashed across his face.

"Just...five minutes?"

"Yes, Your Majesty." Moltke nodded and turned another page. "Moreover, he felt that the Qing army would not confront him head-on in Seoul, but would instead take away the Korean king before the Japanese army could act, head north to Pyongyang, and then implement a scorched-earth policy, dragging the war into a war of attrition."

Wilhelm II became very interested and, unable to wait for Xiao Mao's whimsical thoughts, went to his desk, picked up the red folder—it was Tojo Hideaki's "Draft of the Qing Army Defense Plan"—and began to read it.

As he watched, the expression on his face became increasingly interesting.

"They seem to be thinking the same thing!"

“Not exactly the same,” Moltke said. “They basically both guessed what the other would do. But Chang Desheng didn’t mention that the Qing army might use cavalry to control the eight provinces of Korea…that might have been his trump card.”

In truth, Chang Desheng had never imagined using Qing cavalry in this way. This was an old tactic of the Eight Banners troops; Tojo had thoroughly studied the Qing army's methods before coming up with it. Now Chang Desheng could steal another trick from them…

Wilhelm II laughed, a rather smug laugh: "It seems the upcoming Sino-Japanese War is destined to be a protracted war with rivers of blood flowing."

Moltke nodded emphatically: "Yes, if both sides choose the optimal solution, this war will definitely drag on!"

Wilhelm II suddenly revealed a mischievous smile: "However, it's rather boring to just do our own deductions. Helmut, tomorrow, in the name of the Tribunal, convene a 'Mid-Term Planning Seminar' for both the Qing and Japanese students. You and your advisors will each comment on the strengths and weaknesses of their respective first-phase plans and raise questions."

"Yes, Your Majesty!"